Triple Lock could be at risk in future thanks to inflation and migration (Image: Getty)
The future of the state pension triple lock could be at risk because of inflation and a drop in migration to the UK, experts have warned today.
The triple lock, which the current government has committed to keeping in place until at least the end of their time in charge of Parliament, enshrines in law that DWP state pension payments must increase every April in line with one of three measures: inflation, wage growth or a flat 2.5%, whichever is highest.
This year, wage growth was the deciding factor but in previous years the state pension has jumped by as much as 8.5% because the triple lock was tied to high inflation figures at the time following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
On Wednesday, a note was shared by consultancy firm Oxford Economics’s chief UK economist Andew Goodwin, who told his clients: “We think the triple lock is unaffordable and should be replaced by indexation to earnings.”
He added that this would become ‘more pressing’ if ministers successfully cut net migration figures, according to the i Paper.
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Low net migration would have a knock-on effect on the UK economy, the Oxford Economics report said, including shrinking the UK’s GDP by as much as 15%.
According to the report, lower economic growth would depress tax revenues, forcing successive governments into “harder decisions”, pushing more people to work longer, raising the retirement age, or abandoning the triple lock pension guarantee.
Mr Goodwin added in the report: “Lower economic growth feeds through to lower tax revenues. Current and capital public spending also falls, as a smaller population requires fewer people to receive education and healthcare. However, the cuts to spending are much smaller than the fall in revenues.”
According to The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, net migration sharply declined in 2025. Though the final figures can be subject to change, it says migration has dropped from a peak of 944,000 in 2023 to just 204,000 in 2025.
It said: “With this caveat in mind, estimates from the Office for National Statistics suggest that total net migration was 204,000 in the year ending June 2025. This figure is similar to pre-pandemic estimates but represents a sharp decline compared to the year ending March 2023, when net migration peaked at a historical high of 944,000.”
Michael Saunders, who used to sit on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, warned that inflation spikes caused by global volatility make the triple lock more expensive.
He said: “One of the consequences of that is that the cost of the triple lock is much higher than expected, because the cost of it is directly linked to inflation volatility. Is that something which, in that kind of outcome, having a look at that would help to reduce some of the UK’s longer-term fiscal vulnerabilities?”
Previously, opposition parties have called for the triple lock to be reassessed. In 2025, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch was forced to quash calls from within her party to get rid of the state pension uprating in order to slash the UK’s welfare bill.
Tory MP and former leadership contender Tom Tugendhat at the time said young people had realised the “entire economy is now geared towards a bunch of people who are ageing”.
Last week, Labour backbencher Graeme Downie, wrote that older people who ‘benefited financially from peace’ to make sacrifices for national security, adding: “If there is to be a true whole of society approach to defence, and younger people could be expected to die, what are older people willing to sacrifice?”.
But Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reaffirmed this week that Labour is not changing its triple Lock policy.
