The latest inflation results have been released today (Image: Getty)
UK Inflation rose to its highest level since December after the war in the Middle East sent fuel prices rocketing. The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation increased to 3.3% in March from 3% in February, the Office for National Statistics said. This index, which shows how fast the prices are rising or falling in the UK, marks the first dataset since the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, which first sparked fears of an inflationary shock.
Higher motor fuel prices were the main driver of the jump in inflation, rising 8.7% month-on-month – the largest increase since June 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Office for National Statistics chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Inflation climbed in March, largely due to increased fuel prices, which saw their largest increase for over three years. Air fares were another upward driver this month, alongside rising food prices.”
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Higher motor fuel prices were the main driver of the jump in inflation (Image: Getty)
He added: “The only significant offset came from clothing costs, where prices rose by less than this time last year.”
It comes after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war, which has disrupted energy imports from the Gulf region. As a result, oil prices have risen globally, leading to higher distribution costs that can affect the prices of everyday items, including food.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the Iran crisis was “not our war, but it is pushing up bills for families and businesses.”
She said: “We’re acting to protect people from unfair price rises if they occur to bring down food prices at the till, and are boosting long-term energy security — building a stronger, more secure economy.”
The average price of petrol stood at 140.2 pence per litre in March 2026, the highest price since August 2024, when it was 142.3 pence per litre. The average price of diesel stood at 158.7 pence per litre in March 2026, the highest price since November 2023, when it was 159.0 pence per litre.
Air fares rose by 10.0% between February and March 2026, compared with a fall of 0.3% a year ago, marking the largest increase between February and March since 2016, when it was 22.9%.
Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 3.7% in the 12 months to March, up from 3.3% in February. This rise was driven by increased costs for chocolate, confectionery, meat, fish, and soft drinks, the ONS said.
Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), said: “The clouds are gathering, but the storm has not yet broken on rising food and drink inflation.
“The war in Iran has delivered a cost shock that is already too large for manufacturers to absorb in full.”
Dr Danila said the impact on prices will take a while to work its way through the system, but it’s “only a matter of time” before it does.
She added: “For manufacturers, long-term contracts with suppliers and retailers mean it can take up to a year for higher costs to be fully passed through.
“But where products are less processed, or supply chains are shorter, prices will move more quickly. As a result, absent of any Government intervention, we expect a gradual but persistent pickup in food inflation, reaching around 9–10% by the end of the year.”
She added: “This means we’re in a crucial window for action to limit the impact on shoppers. We’re working with Government to look at the levers they can pull now to support food manufacturers now to soften the blow on consumers later in the year.”
Food price inflation jumped from 3.3% in February to 3.7% in March (Image: Getty)
What is inflation?
Inflation is the economic term to describe the sustained increase in prices for goods and services within a specific period of time.
The goods and services analysed include everything from food, transportation, and hotel costs to medical care and are weighted towards the areas most consumed by households.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the international measure that tracks inflation, increased to 3.3% in March 2026, meaning goods now cost 3.3% more than they did last year.
March’s 3.3% rise was its highest level since December, which is moving further away from the Bank of England’s 2% target.
However, this is still far below the 11.1% peak triggered in October 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which was the highest rate seen in 40 years.
The Bank of England monitors CPI when setting interest rates. If inflation is too high, the Bank may raise interest rates to slow consumer spending and cool the economy, which is good news for savers, but will hit those with variable mortgages and debts.
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Jeremy Batstone Carr, European strategist at Raymond James Investment Services, believed an immediate policy adjustment by the Bank of England later this month was unlikely.
“While opting to hold the base rate at 3.75% in a unanimous decision at its last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the Bank of England indicated it stands ready to take appropriate action to curb inflationary pressures.
“While financial
Suren Thiru, chief economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, predicted energy costs and food prices were likely to lift the headline rate above 4% by the autumn, despite slower
He said the “disheartening resurgence in inflation confirms stagflation fears” as notable increases in airfares, fuel and food prices triggered by the Iran war drove an unnerving jump in the headline rate.
